Having been involved in survivalism for the last thirty years; I can honestly say without any trepidation that a vast majority of survivalist are not ready to meet the challenges of disaster preparedness in 2012, or beyond. I can say this with complete truthfulness based on both the time I have been involved in this field, and the thousands upon thousands of people, articles, and videos that I have experienced over the years.
That is not to say that all survivalist aren't ready, just a large percentage of those that I have encountered.
Financial Abilities: Though many claim to be preparing for SHTF, the fact remains that our economy sucks; and therefore not many families can allocate a portion of their income towards Long Term food supplies, or emergency gear.
Lack Of Planning: Sadly this is the most abused element when it comes to survival planning. The lack of reality based survival planning will lead many people to their doom. There is absolutely no way that anyone can head to hills with a jar of peanut butter, and then try to feed his family by living off the land. It might work for awhile, but it won't work for ever. Guarantee they will die. These types of people also fall into the "Lonewolf Survivalist" category-They almost go hand-in-hand.
Lack Of Resources: Not having the requisite food and water supply will at some point force the ill-prepared survivalist out into the open. Let's face the very simple facts; if one heads out into the woods without enough food or water, their time is limited, and they must at some point return to civilization in order to resupply themselves. Simple things such as toilet paper, water filters, antibiotics, powdered milks, and other necessary and life-saving items cannot be built, manufactured, or harvested from the wilds of nature.
I've spent months and months in the Arizona and Texas deserts. Water is out there, but knowing where to look, and how to purify it is another matter altogether. Coupled with the simple fact that everybody else will also be looking for water, creates an immediate danger to anyone skulking around out in the desert. Waterholes and wells will be highly defended by well armed survival groups.
I've travelled the deserts at night using the moonlight for navigation. Finding water at night is almost impossible. Rattle snakes like to curl up around the rocks near water. The rocks stay warm throughout the night, and the snakes love to keep warm, and then fill-up with life saving water in the early morning hours, before they slither away into their cool burrows to wait out the hot sun.
Let's not forget about the drug cartels currently operating out in the desert either...
Dependence Upon Technologies: Global Positioning Devices, Cell-Phones, Night Vision Capability, Wireless Alarms; all of these things require batteries. They are cool to have around, and they can be charged with a solar charger, but ask yourself one question: "Who are you gonna call"? You are bugging out to get away from society. Those people that are important to you will either be accompanying you, or left to fend for themselves in the city.
The GPS is a waste of space: if you have done your survival planning, the need for a GPS is null. You should already know where you are going, and where you are at.
Wireless perimeter alarms work both ways. When Alaska Watchmen trains out in the woods, one of the things that we look for are signs of alarms. Whether these alarms are of the sticks and stone variety, or the motion detector variety; it tells us that somebody is in the area. Our patrol formation then assumes a "Movement To Contact" scenario utilizing bounding over-watch formations, and if necessary fire and maneuver to defeat a deliberate and near ambush. We have perfected these drills to a near science.
It's better to shuck these devices and use natural camouflage to hide yourself. Remaining quiet and alert will require absolutely no batteries of fuel.
I've been bow-hunting and had other hunters walk close enough to me, that I could reach out and stick my finger in their ear, or jam my Ka-Bar into the back of their neck, and they never knew that I was standing less than two feet from them.
Fundamental Misunderstanding Of Survival: There is a harsh difference between survival and primitive survival. The two are twin-sisters, but each have their own time and place in the overall scope of things. Survivalism in today's society means having the ability to get away from, prepared for, or live through a horrific event which imperils life. This can only be accomplished through understanding the threats, mitigating the risk, and planning for the continuity of the person or family attempting to survive the crisis.
Look at this from another aspect: in the Lower-48 states, every square inch of land is owned, or occupied by somebody. There is absolutely no ground in American that doesn't have an ownership title attached to it. There are some areas in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and other High-Plain states that are still devoid of human beings. But-even these remote areas are within striking distance of large cities and human habitations. Maine and the New England state are gorgeous, but the fact remains, that all of the areas in the mountains are deemed "recreational" areas. They have roads leading into them. No matter how hard you try, escaping from other people will be difficult.
The southwestern deserts are slowly being strangled by human encroachment. Rich in fauna and wildlife, when SHTF, there's suddenly going to be lots of armed survivalist out there doing their very best to survive.
No matter where the survivalist plans to go, there is a very good chance of encountering other survivalists out there. Encounters will become more frequent during the first two weeks as these people flood out of the cities and try to get into the back country areas.
Let's examine some prime examples:
These 10 cities rank as cities with the highest population densities.
Assuming ONLY ten percent of the population actually Bugs Out when SHTF; consider the immediate number of people that will be heading to the nearest tract of green in the region.
Rank In Population | City | State | Population | 10% Population |
1 | New York City | New York | 8,175,133 | 817,513 |
2 | Los Angeles | California | 3,792,621 | 379,262 |
3 | Chicago | Illinois | 2, 695,598 | 269,559 |
4 | Houston | Texas | 2,099,451 | 209,945 |
5 | Philadelphia | Pennsylvania | 1,526,006 | 152,600 |
6 | Phoenix | Arizona | 1,445,632 | 144,563 |
7 | San Antonia | Texas | 1,327,407 | 132,740 |
8 | San Diego | California | 1,307,402 | 130,740 |
9 | Dallas | Texas | 1, 197, 816 | 119,781 |
10 | Jacksonville | Florida | 821, 784 | 82, 178 |
[ Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population ]
This means that every state park, every mountain range, every piece of land out in the country, will be inundated with throngs of people leaving the cities---And that’s just the first day!
Another thing to remember, is the fact that many small towns and villages will rapidly become armed camps that will further prevent the mass exodus of people moving out of the cities. Trying to run these road-blocks will likely result in immediate death at the hands of well organized, and well armed townsfolk manning the perimeter.
Conspiracy Based Survival Planning: Preparing to Bug Out from societal control might sound advantageous, but in reality, this kind of planning is pure hogwash, and to me personally doesn't even rate a second thought. As I have written in several different survival articles over the years, running away from the law, or fighting the military when SHTF will not occur like many think. It will in fact become a slaughter house.
Both the police and military have technology that will make it almost impossible for the average survivalist to hide out in the woods. Consequently, if you are considered a threat; the likelihood of finding troops stomping through the forest looking for you is slim. Why risk their lives, when it's safer and much more productive to send in a killer drone. They've been doing that for years in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Nobody on this planet can change the course of biblical prophecies. You have no say, cannot impact, or attain any level of force or coercion upon the events described in Revelations or other prophecies. Like everyone else on this planet, you are an unwilling victim, and the only thing that you have the capability to accomplish, is to mitigate your own risk and exposure. The rest is up to dumb luck, and GOD. (Period!)
Over-Confidence And Reliance On Weaponry: Even though many of these survivalist can barely manage to pay the monthly mortgage, or have the ability to stockpile emergency food supplies, nearly everyone of these people will not hesitate to fork out thousands of dollars for weapons and ammunition.
I've watched as the survival movement did a rapid exit from survival guns, to modern battle rifles. Not just the standard carbine or the shotgun, but rifles equipped with lasers, holographic sights, aim point devices, and too much add-on accessorial "junk" that makes the rifle to heavy to carry, ad to burdensome to use in the woods. Keeping it light doesn't seem to work for most people anymore, because they have never been forced to hump those eleven pound rifles around for weeks at a time.
Flashlight, Laser, Electronic Sight, Fore Grip, and folding stock makes this weapon FRONT HEAVY, and hard to maneuver in the bush. The Reacquisition of target will be much slower; and the fact that it needs batteries, makes this a dumb choice for a survival rifle set-up. Get rid of this useless accessorial junk and get back to the basics.
In the Army I was forced to carry the M16/M203 Grenade Launcher, and a vest full of 40mm grenades. That was in addition to my other gear, rations, claymore mines, C-4, M72A2 LAW, and extra PRCC-77 radio batteries. Three days later there wasn't a muscle on my body that wasn't rubbed raw, bleeding, or dead tired. Imagine having to hump half of that weight when other people are chasing you. Small lightweight weapons are the choice for most Special Operations teams; it should also be the choice for survivalists.
The internet is full of the type of survivalist that carries multiple weapons, hundreds of round in ammunition, and next to nothing in terms of food. I've eaten allot of things with hot sauce or ketchup, but .223 caliber bullets would have to be boiled for an eternity before they become palatable for human digestion. Replace the ammo with food. If you've done you survival planning correctly, you will never need the weapons, unless it's because of a chance encounter.
Lone-Wolf Syndrome: To me personally, the Lonewolf survivalist is more than likely going to be the first one to either fold, or the first one to die when SHTF. These guys are so used to doing it by themselves, that they rarely have the capacity to integrate into a team oriented structure. Most are Alpha male type personalities, and the kind that absolutely must have their own way. It's hard for these guys to adjust their level of thinking, much less their level of trust and commitment to a survival group.
I have seen my share of these types of survivalist. No matter what anyone else says, no matter what the situation, they will always do what they think is right--even when it's wrong.
Take for example the guy (That I know) that will head to the coast to live in his cabin--even if the threat of death is coming from that direction. It didn't matter one bit what I tried to explain to him; he was going to his cabin on the ocean when SHTF. What he failed to plan for, and continues to not-understand, that radiation contamination, biological attacks, coastal flooding, or straight-out TEOTWAWKI could occur in his area. All of his supplies, gear, and equipment that he plans to survive with, is located in and around that cabin.
The Lone Wolf survivalist is usually the one person that lives in a fantasy world, fancies himself as living out in the wilds, shooting and looting when strangers come by, and existing by his skills, wits, and guns.
For their sake, I hope that they are without a mate or children--because these guys will get everybody in their family killed. I have adopted the approach that I will only try once to get their attention; after that "Adio's Muchacho"!
So what the answer to all of this:
- Planning
- Execution
- Survivability
- Sustainability
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I live on Long Island and if NYC stops getting food deliveries I think hundreds of thousands from Brooklyn and Queens will be coming east looking for food. Can't kill them all so I'm getting the hell off the island before there is a full collapse. I have to time it right though. Our NY state group has contingency plans and a comms system to work off of as long as the gris is still up otherwise gonna be a lot of message relaying here.
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