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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Follow Up: Survival Planning Before You Die!

5pointsofsurvival

In a previous article that I wrote yesterday titled “Startling Facts About Survivalists: You Are Going To Die!” I outlined what I personally believe to be some serious misconceptions about the current survival trends.

Many of the readers that have found the article interesting, asked how it was possible to overcome these issues, and proceed forward utilizing a reality based survival plan.

 

In another book that I had planned to publish early in 2012; I outline what I believe to be the nexus of survival planning. That doesn’t mean that I am the ultimate authority, or that my plans will work for everyone; but it does mean that these plans will work for me personally, and consequently those people within the rank and file of The Alaska Watchmen Group that have come to rely upon my judgment, and critical thinking in these area.

When I “engage the brain” in these areas, I first set to pen and paper every conceivable threat that I and the group will face. Even the most ludicrous things are written down, at least for the moment.

Each threat is then dissected into it’s inherent sub-threat which may pose a danger or risk.

 

EXAMPLE:

PRIMARY EFFECT SECONDARY EFFECT RISK ANALYSIS THREAT OCCURRENCE MITIGATION  
Volcanic Eruption  

   

  Pyroclastic Flow Danger Radius Widespread Fires Distance  
  Immediate Blast Effect Blast Radius Buildings Toppled

Distance

 
  Ash Cloud Dispersion Time To Arrival Air Quality Affected Air Filters  
  Earthquake Swarm Risk Mitigation Effects SEE EARTHQUAKE EFFECT EAP Protocols  
  Increased Tsunami Event Risk Mitigation Effects SEE TSUNAMI EFFECT EAP Protocols  

EAP is defined as Emergency Action Plans. These plans are designed to mitigate risk or exposure regarding one particular effect. It details the immediate and long-term strategic or tactical plans developed for a certain event. How myself, or the group will respond to that event alone.

Some of these events included the following scenarios:

  • Volcanic Eruption
  • Tsunami
  • Earthquake
  • Civil Unrest
  • Economic Collapse
  • Supply Chain Disruption
  • Power Grid Failure
  • Communications Failure
  • Terrorist Attack
  • War Declaration
  • Martial Law Declaration
  • Medical Pandemic
  • Radiological Event
  • Biological Event
  • Chemical Event
  • Meteor Strike
  • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

Each of the above events results in focusing upon reducing our risk to the event, countering the inherent immediate and long term threats, and developing strategies in dealing with the event with little or no advance warning. As part of the overall strategy; there are four main areas that are taken into consideration when developing the survival plan:

  1. Planning
  2. Execution
  3. Survivability
  4. Sustainability

Planning Phase:

Planning is defined as determining what the threat is, how it could affect us, and what the event probability is. After having noted all of the sub-effects that we could encounter, each facet of the threat is analyzed for a predicated response on our part. In this area we expand the critical think a little further:

  • Historically, in similar such events; has there been advance warning capability that allowed for a timely dissemination of emergency alerts?
  • How many times in history has this event occurred?
  • What is the probability that this event will occur in the near future?
  • What was the single most factor evident that created this event?
  • What was the single most factor evident which helped to offset the risk or damage during the event?
  • If this event were to occur today, how would we alert the members of its probability, or occurrence?
  • Would the members have adequate means to transition into a full-blown evacuation to the Rally Point?
  • What factors would contribute to the delay of our evacuation to the Rally Point?
  • Are there alternate routes available that would not delay our evacuation to the Rally Point?
  • What are the likely risk associated with evacuating to the Rally Point?
  • How do we individually, and collectively overcome these risk while moving to the Rally Point.
  • Is it possible to Shelter In Place during this event, and under what circumstances is this possible?
  • How will ill, or elderly members be evacuated from the affected areas, and who is responsible for their evacuation?

 

Execution Phase:

Execution comes about after all of these question, and other question involving the threats, have been analysis in much detail. During the execution phase, the group is trained to respond, thus executing the plan in its entirety:

  • Notification / Alert Phase; Tactical Alert Call Tree System (TACTS) Initiated.
  • Wide Area Communications Network Implemented.
  • Advance Elements move towards critical over-watch areas.
  • Security Group moves toward Rally Point to secure it, and await arrival of group members.
  • Team Leaders insure that group members are moving towards the Rally Point. Communicates with Command Group.
  • Over-Watch elements communicate route delays, obstructions, and other critical information as team members move through their respective positions. Communicates continuous updates with Command Group.
  • Over-Watch position moves to Rally Point when all members have moved through the check-point / over-watch area.
  • Command Group and Members conduct roll-call, determine missing member’s status; and weigh the risk involved in sending a rescue team to extract/evacuate missing members.
  • Entire Group maintains defensive perimeter to secure Rally Point.

 

Phase Two Of Execution:

  • Scout deployed forward of team prior to departure from Rally Point.
  • Stay-Behind Guard maintains perimeter after group departs the Rally Point, then deploys as Rear Guard during movement to Safe Area.
  • Movement/Departure from Rally Point to Safe Area initiated.
  • security Protocols established and executed while in route to Safe Area.
  • Command Group receives continuous updates from scouts and rear guard, as well as Shelter-In-Place elements within the affected areas.
  • Advance group arrives at Safe Area’ conducts reconnaissance, and communicates same with Command Group; then secures the Safe Area for our arrival.

Survivability Phase:

Each person within the group has several duties. They are expected to perform their primary duty such as Medic, Construction, Cooks, etc.; and then also serve as rotating guard throughout the deployment at the Safe Area. They may also be called upon to conduct security patrols within the areas around the Safe Area; or execute foraging or reconnaissance operations when necessary.

Sustainability Phase:

Once the crisis or event has progressed to more reasonable levels of accepted risk; then all efforts are turned towards Long Term sustainment of the group and its members. This could included establishing alternative power, sanitation, water filtration, communications, and other factors necessary for the continuity of the group.

Primitive survival skills, agricultural skills, and other skills and duties that provide for the groups ability to sustain ourselves are then implemented.

 

SURVIVAL_STAR

The Survival Star is a easy tool that almost anyone can use in order to make their own survival plans. Each point of the star represent a critical area that cannot be discounted or overcome. All six points of the star work together in order to insure that the plan works.

Consider each point of the star, and what it means to your own survival plan, as well as the execution of the plan.

The Survival Star can be used for both the Evacuation (Bug Out) Phase, or upon arrival at the Safe Area when some of the risk has diminished to acceptable levels.

 

I will not give away our operational plans and strategies, but what you are seeing is a condensed version of “one of many” of our tactical plans. These plans have been rehearsed over and over until it becomes an automatic and conditioned response.

I formulated these plans, worked out the details, and then approach the group with these plans. Each detail was discussed and argued, until we ALL reached the consensus that we were comfortable with our plans. It’s not based on what I want, or what I demand—it’s based on the simple premise that everyone within our group has a part to play in these plans, and thus; a say in how they go down when SHTF. Anything less would be tyrannical and dictatorial—and that just doesn’t work for me…