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Thursday, January 19, 2012

90-Day Survival Outlook

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Critical threats faced throughout the next ninety days:

 

Solar Storms:

The GOES 12 through 15 spacecraft each carry a sophisticated Solar X-ray Imager to monitor the Sun’s X-rays for the early detection of solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other phenomena that impact the geospace environment. This early warning is important because travelling solar disturbances affect not only the safety of humans in high-altitude missions, such as human spaceflight, but also military and commercial satellite communications. In addition, coronal mass ejections can damage long-distance electric power grids, causing extensive power blackouts.

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Solar radiation is measured through many different scales. Each scale represents a severity class for humans and our electronics. The higher the class—the more intense and dangerous a solar storm

Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.

Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase.

Radio Blackouts: disturbances of the ionosphere caused by X-ray emissions from the Sun.

 

Geomagnetic Storms

  • G 5 Extreme
  1. Power systems: : widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
  2. Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
  3. Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

  • G 4 Severe
  1. Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
  2. Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
  3. Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

  • G 3 Strong
  1. Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
  2. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
  3. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

  • G 2 Moderate
  1. Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
  2. Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
  3. Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.)**.

 

  • G 1 Minor
  1. Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
  2. Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.
  3. Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.

 

 

Solar Radiation Storms

  • S 5 Extreme
  1. Biological: unavoidable high radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity); passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
  2. Satellite operations: satellites may be rendered useless, memory impacts can cause loss of control, may cause serious noise in image data, star-trackers may be unable to locate sources; permanent damage to solar panels possible.
  3. Other systems: complete blackout of HF (high frequency) communications possible through the polar regions, and position errors make navigation operations extremely difficult.

 

  • S 4 Severe
  1. Biological: unavoidable radiation hazard to astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
  2. Satellite operations: may experience memory device problems and noise on imaging systems; star-tracker problems may cause orientation problems, and solar panel efficiency can be degraded.
  3. Other systems: blackout of HF radio communications through the polar regions and increased navigation errors over several days are likely.

 

  • S 3 Strong
  1. Biological: radiation hazard avoidance recommended for astronauts on EVA; passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk.***
  2. Satellite operations: single-event upsets, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panel are likely.
  3. Other systems: degraded HF radio propagation through the polar regions and navigation position errors likely.

 

  • S 2 Moderate
  1. Biological: passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.***
  2. Satellite operations: infrequent single-event upsets possible.
  3. Other systems: small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.

 

  • S 1 Minor
  1. Biological: none.
  2. Satellite operations: none.
  3. Other systems: minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions.

 

Radio Blackouts

  • R 5 Extreme
  1. HF Radio:Complete HF (high frequency**) radio blackout on the entire sunlit side of the Earth lasting for a number of hours. This results in no HF radio contact with mariners and en route aviators in this sector.
  2. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals used by maritime and general aviation systems experience outages on the sunlit side of the Earth for many hours, causing loss in positioning. Increased satellite navigation errors in positioning for several hours on the sunlit side of Earth, which may spread into the night side.

 

  • R 4 Severe
  1. HF Radio: : HF radio communication blackout on most of the sunlit side of Earth for one to two hours. HF radio contact lost during this time.
  2. Navigation: Outages of low-frequency navigation signals cause increased error in positioning for one to two hours. Minor disruptions of satellite navigation possible on the sunlit side of Earth.

 

  • R 3 Strong
  1. HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth.
  2. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

 

  • R 2 Moderate
  1. HF Radio: Limited blackout of HF radio communication on sunlit side, loss of radio contact for tens of minutes.
  2. Navigation: Degradation of low-frequency navigation signals for tens of minutes.

 

  • R 1 Minor
  1. HF Radio: Weak or minor degradation of HF radio communication on sunlit side, occasional loss of radio contact.
  2. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for brief intervals

 

It’s important for survivalist and survival groups to monitor these space anomalies. Relying on the major news networks to keep informed might be a mistake. Here are some of the resources that I use:

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[ Click the picture above to get Real Time Solar Wind Storm Information ]

[For further research information please click onto: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html]

******

Iranian Oil Crisis:

Over the last few years I have written about the possibility that Iran would begin to ramp up their fifth column attacks when confronted with economic sanctions.

Last Sunday  30-year old Iranian Dissident was assassinated outside of her home in Texas. Gelareh Bagherzadeh was an outspoken critic of Iran's fledgling democracy. Her political activism got the attention of the military dictatorship ruling the Iranian people.

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Sometime around midnight, according to the Daily Mail, Gelareh Bagherzadeh, a 30-year-old genetics student, was struck by a bullet that ripped through the passenger door window as she talked on the phone with her ex-boyfriend. According to police, an unknown assailant sneaked up to the passenger’s side of the 30-year-old’s car and shot her at point blank range in the head.

Bagherzadeh’s car motor was still running when she was shot, and it subsequently smashed into a garage door just steps from her parents’ home in an upscale community southwest of Houston, Texas. A neighbor heard the sound of the shattering glass and the running vehicle and called the police.

[Source:http://www.theblaze.com/stories/why-was-a-young-female-iranian-dissident-murdered-execution-style-in-tx/]

The major television personalities are just now starting to realize that this wasn’t murder—that Ms. Bagherzadeh was killed by Iranian Special Forces operatives that have infiltrated onto American soil through our loose and unsecured southern borders, or through inferior immigration polices. But this isn’t the first time that Iranian terrorist have struck in the USA:

Amid the crisis centering around Iran; arises the looming specter of war. Throughout the last year Iran has stepped-up it’s nuclear weapons program; kidnapped several American citizens, and recently imposed the Death Sentence on another American charged with spying.

Iran’s constant barrage of military rhetoric against America, Israel, and western countries has progressively worsened to the point that Iran's military forces have threatened to close down the Strait of Hormuz; a move threat that is taken very serious by every nation on the globe.

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Iranian Submarine Forces

 

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Iran’s Space Program Launch Center

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Iranian Gunboats Conducting Maneuvers In The Strait Of Hormuz

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Iranian Special Forces Trained Narco-Drug Cartel Paramilitary Units